Winds of Winter release date news time. By news I mean "mostly speculation," but to ease up your delirum thronems, I've taken the liberty of gathering up everything we know about when the next book will come out. George R. R. Martin is not a machine. But it is nevertheless possible to put the Winds of Winter release date in 2014 with some certainty and only a good bit of optimism.
UPDATED 6.07.13: GRRM was on Conan this week and said that he's writing very quickly, and is more conscious than ever of the show catching up to him. A good sign!
Here's what we know so far about the Winds of Winter release date. A Dance With Dragons came out on July 12, 2011 at the pleasant easy reading length of 1,510 pages. At that point, Martin supposedly had 200 pages for Winds of Winter already complete, chapters originally intended for Dance but pushed ahead for story and pacing reasons. The book is expected to be, roughly speaking, the same length as Dance and Storm or even longer; all of them except A Game of Thrones are in roughly the same ballpark, anyway.
As of October 2012, the Winds of Winter release date was still a long way off -- Martin announced he had written about 400 pages out of 1500, out of which around 200 were "really finished." Nevertheless, in the same interview, he said that "the sixth volume won't be released in 2012 or in 2013. I really look forward to publishing it in 2014, but I am really bad for predictions... when I finish this saga I will be judged for the quality of the books, not for the speed of my writing."
George R. R. Martin is a notorious over estimator of how fast he writes, although it does seem reasonable -- as he himself expects -- that the book will take substantially less time than the five years for Feast and the five years for Dance. The Meereenese knot, after all, is solved. And Martin doesn't want the TV show to catch up with him; it's a concern he's very aware of, so even though he's taken on a lot of other projects, he's still chugging forward. As he told Airlock Alpha,
I am aware of the TV series moving along behind me like a giant locomotive, and I know I need to lay the track more quickly, perhaps, because the locomotive is soon going to be bearing down on me. The last thing I want is for the TV series to catch up with me. I've got a considerable head start, but production is moving faster than I can write. I'm hoping that we'll finish the story at about the same time ... we'll see.
Those other projects, though, may slow down the Winds of Winter release date. Martin not only writes one episode of the show per season, he recently devoted a lot of time to the excellent Atlas of Ice and Fire, to a large number of anthologies that he edits, to Dunk and Egg stories set earlier in Westeros' history, and most recently to his new overall development deal with HBO. He even just bought a movie theater. In between all that, he goes to a lot of conventions and on a lot of tours (fewer now that no new books are out). This is a man who likes to overextend himself.
That said, there is reason for optimism on the Winds of Winter release date. Clash of Kings and Storm of Swords both took only two years to write. The story wasn't as complicated yet, but it was still pretty darn complicated. And he has broken out of the corner he wrote himself into. It's relatively smooth sailing from here until the end.
At least, it better be, because he's not getting any younger.