Exit polls may be the strongest indication we have so far of who is winning the 2012 Presidential Election before the actual votes are counted later tonight. Even dueling experts on both sides can agree that exit polls are important, though they all come with a grain of salt planted firmly on the tongue. Because fact-based forecasts about tonight's presidential election results are infinitely better than a faith-and-feeling based one, here's our prediction for who will win the 2012 election based on the exit polls from Ohio, Florida, and Virginia-- the most important of all the swing states. And if trusting exit polls to predict election results isn't your thing (and we don't blame you), click here to check out where you can watch a live-stream of the election, and here to find out where you can find out when we'll know who the winner is.
The Swing States Round-Up
Who Is Winning Ohio So Far?
On his 538 blog, Nate Silver predicts that Obama will win the key swing state of Ohio. Even RealClearPolitics, which arguably skews itself towards a more conservative bias, sees Obama taking the swing state of Ohio away from Mitt Romney.
In fact, all of the early data we have so far indicates that Obama will win this famous battleground and defeat Romney, his conservative opponent. Why? As CNN has pointed out, the largest demographic of undecided voter in Ohio consists of women, and thanks to Obama's policies protecting the fair treatment of women in the workplace--
He stands a stronger chance of cementing a victory in Ohio. And as Nate Silver points out, Ohio has a 50-50 chance of deciding this election. If you're an Obama supporter, that's pretty awesome. If you're a Romney supporter, don't lose hope. When Exit Poll data comes in at 5 PM today, we'll have a better idea of where we stand on the issues.
Who Is Winning Florida So Far?
As 30 Rock famously pointed out in an episode two weeks ago, Florida voters are notoriously difficult to call. Will this vital swing state's early data predict that Obama is winning because of how the Ryan Healthcare Plan would allegedly hurt seniors, or will Romney take the lead over Obama because of how Romney's strong pro-Israel stance resonates with the Jewish constituents of the state?
Nate Silver just switched Florida to a light blue, which means that he predicts Obama will take it tonight. However, RealClearPolitics sees a 1.5+ lead for Romney in the 2012 Presidential Election, so this swing state is certainly still too close to call.
We'll know more when Exit Poll data is released, and even then, chances are we won't know till much later in the evening if this vital swing state was taken by Obama or Romney.
Who Is Winning Virginia So Far?
Earlier this week, we reported that based on conservative-leaning data from RCP, Virginia was leaning towards Mitt Romney by an ever-so-slight margin of .3+
At present, according to RealClearPolitics, Obama has taken the lead in the state by the same margin. Once again, this state is too close to call, but it is vital. Even if Romney takes Ohio AND Florida, he can't win the election without Virginia. If Obama takes Virginia tonight-- and Virginia will be the first state to call it in-- then it's safe to say that Obama will win the election.
Again, data from exit polls will be a strong indication in one direction or another-- but only in terms of where we should place our bets. Until the vote is counted, anything goes.
But just because we're calling it for Obama right now doesn't mean we're all 100% on board with him. Here is an opinion piece about why you shouldn't vote for Barack Obama.