Presidential Polls 2012: Who Is Winning The Election So Far? [ANALYSIS & VIDEO]
Or, Why Even Conservative-Skewed Date Shows That Obama Will Win The Election
The Presidential Polls for the 2012 elections that we have available to us so far could potentially be an indicator for who will win the 2012 presidential elections. And unfortunately for our conservative friends, everything's coming up Obama-- even in vital swing state battlegrounds like Ohio. But does that mean that Romney's chances of being elected our 2012 U.S. President have been completely blown out of the water?
Looking at the Presidential Polls results we have so far for the 2012 election, we'll tell you who is winning the election so far, what both sides need to do to win, and why you should take all this ish with a grain of salt.
(Update from Author: Many have criticized this piece for being too "pro-Obama" and "anti-Romney." To that end, I've written an article on the reasons why one shouldn't vote for Obama. Take a look at it here.)
Biased Data, or, Is Romney Winning Anywhere?
Since so many media outlets are using their data to report huge leads by President Obama in the swing state battlegrounds that (unfortunately for those of us who want a say but don't live in Ohio and its kind) really and truly matter, looking to sources whose data skews more conservatively could potentially be the best way of looking at Romney's best-case-scenario and Obama's worst-case-scenario. It also protects us from accusations of being a "pick-and-choose liberal media," so let's rule against potential conservative paranoia whenever we can.
According to the presidential polls of right-leaning RealClearPolitics at time of writing, Obama leads Romney by a narrow, electable margin of 10 points. According to their presidential polls data, Obama leads in the key battleground states of Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota.
However, Romney holds respectable leads in North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia.
Of Obama's early leads, Colorado is the absolute weakest.
Of Romney's early leads, Virginia is the absolute weakest.
So Let's Crunch Some Numbers
Again, this Presidential Poll data comes from a conservative-skewed source, meaning it has potentially selectively chosen the most strongly biased data by which Obama will lose the election and Romney will win. We're working with this biased data on purpose, to illustrate likelihoods and unlikelihoods within selective data.
Courtesy of the incredibly fun New York Times "512 Paths to the White House" interactive map, we can quickly crunch these numbers and take a look at what they mean for our current President and for Massachusetts's former Governor.
As we've already said, based on playing the conservative data as it lies, Obama wins by 10 points.
But let's get rid of Obama's weakest lead-- Colorado. Take that away from him and give it to Romney, and Obama still wins.
Obama's second weakest electoral lead is in New Hampshire. Take that away from President Obama, and the presidential polls still show that Obama wins the 2012 election.
The President's third weakest electoral lead is in Nevada. Take that away from him and give it to Romney, and conservative data still shows that Obama wins the 2012 election.
His fourth weakest lead is in Ohio. Take that away from Obama and give it to Romney, and finally, Romney wins the election.
And spoiler alert: Even if Romney wins in Ohio, but can't take Obama's other leads away from him in New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada, then presidential polls show that Obama wins the election.
So, in recap: working exclusively within conservative-skewed data, Obama would have to lose four battleground states in which he already has huge leads for Romney to win this election.
But What About Ohio?
Even if Romney takes Ohio, he'll still lose. If Romney manages to take Ohio and Colorado (Obama's weakest lead), then Romney wins. But if Obama takes Romney's lead away from him in Virginia (Romney's weakest lead-- an even weaker lead than Obama's lead in Obama's weakest lead), then even if Romney takes Colorado away from Obama, Obama still wins the election.
Once again, the numbers aren't on the Republicans' side. Things aren't looking good at all for Mr. Romney.
But Is Romney Down for the Count Just Yet?
As the New York Times map points out, Obama has 431 ways to win, whereas Romney only has 76 ways to win. By no means does that mean that presidential polls are showing that Romney is down for the count. Obama could suffer from the widely speculated crisis of voter turnout on Tuesday, whereas the republican base is rallied against a leadership they see as villainous and anti-American.
But if the election were held today, and only used weird conservative-biased AND volunteer-biased data, then Obama's lead is strong enough that he'd maintain his presidency.
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